• Users Online: 512
  • Home
  • Print this page
  • Email this page
Home About us Editorial board Ahead of print Browse Articles Search Archives Submit article Instructions Subscribe Contacts Login 
Year : 2016  |  Volume : 7  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 101

Estimating the transitional probabilities of smoking stages with cross-sectional data and 10-year projection for smoking behavior in Iranian adolescents

1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Computer Engineering and Information Technology, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran

Correspondence Address:
Kourosh Holakouie-Naieni
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
Login to access the Email id

Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/2008-7802.188602

Rights and Permissions

Background: Cigarette smoking is one of the most important health-related risk factors in terms of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we introduced a new method for deriving the transitional probabilities of smoking stages from a cross-sectional study and simulated a long-term smoking behavior for adolescents. Methods: In this study in 2010, a total of 4853 high school students were randomly selected and were completed a self-administered questionnaire about cigarette smoking. We used smoothed age- and sex-specific prevalence of smoking stages in a probabilistic discrete event system for estimating of transitional probabilities. A nonhomogenous discrete time Markov chain analysis was used to model the progression of the smoking in 10 years ahead in the same population. The mean age of the students was 15.69 ± 0.73 years (range: 14-19). Results: The smoothed prevalence proportion of current smoking varies between 3.58 and 26.14%. The age-adjusted odds of initiation in boys is 8.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.9-10.0) times of the odds of initiation of smoking in girls. Our study predicted that the prevalence proportion of current smokers increased from 7.55% in 2010 to 20.31% (95% CI: 19.44-21.37) for 2019. Conclusions: The present study showed a moderately but concerning prevalence of current smoking in Iranian adolescents and introduced a novel method for estimation of transitional probabilities from a cross-sectional study. The increasing trend of cigarette use among adolescents indicated the necessity of paying more attention to this group.

Print this article     Email this article
 Next article
 Previous article
 Table of Contents

 Similar in PUBMED
   Search Pubmed for
   Search in Google Scholar for
 Related articles
 Citation Manager
 Access Statistics
 Reader Comments
 Email Alert *
 Add to My List *
 * Requires registration (Free)

 Article Access Statistics
    PDF Downloaded171    
    Comments [Add]    
    Cited by others 3    

Recommend this journal